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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys during this period, beneath confluent flow in the wake of a mid-level short wave trough digging across the Great Lakes and northern Mid Atlantic region. However, models indicate that the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridging will be maintained across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Great Plains, beneath the leading edge of large-scale mid-level ridging, which will continue to spread inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level troughing, within the larger-scale ridge, is forecast to slowly pivot across the Intermountain West and Rockies, with an embedded mid-level low digging into the Mogollon Rim vicinity of the Southwest, before slowly turning eastward toward the southern Rockies by late Wednesday night. ...Four Corners region into southern Great Plains... Elevated moisture return and lift associated with warm advection, in advance of the developing mid-level low, may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing convection across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle region by 12Z Wednesday. Some of this may become capable of producing lightning, before at least some further destabilization, beneath increasingly divergent mid/upper flow, contributes to a more substantive increase in weak thunderstorm development near/east of the New Mexico Sangre de Cristo Mountains by late Wednesday afternoon, then into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity through 12Z Thursday. Closer to the cold core of the mid-level low, models indicate that weak boundary-layer destabilization is possible across the plateau and Mogollon Rim vicinity of eastern Arizona into adjacent western New Mexico by late Wednesday afternoon. Aided by strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent, this may lead to increasing thunderstorm development which may persist into mid/late evening. While the risk for severe storms appears negligible, thermodynamic profiles might still become conducive to small hail/graupel in stronger convection. ...Southern Florida... While northeasterly to east-northeasterly low-level flow is likely to be maintained through the period, models indicate that low-level moistening might contribute to sufficient destabilization to support occasional weak thunderstorm activity, mainly where low-level convergence remains enhanced near/offshore of southeast coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated convective showers. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 12/12/2023
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing isolated lightning flashes tonight. Otherwise, gradual low-level moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with onshore flow. Shallow convection/showers are probable in both areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce lightning before 12z still appears fairly low. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment.
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this weekend into Monday. 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS trends have been to increasingly converge towards their parent deterministic runs with effectively unanimous support for cyclogenesis. However, vast spread among guidance exists with the degree of amplification from weak cyclogenesis to bombogenesis, and whether the intensification stays off the South Atlantic Coast or can occur over land. This renders rather low confidence in the timing/location of a potentially favorable warm-sector environment.
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023
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SPC Dec 12, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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