NorthGeorgiaWX
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Posts posted by NorthGeorgiaWX
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Special Weather Statement issued April 16 at 3:15AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, the flow pattern aloft is forecast to quickly de-amplify and trend more zonal as the Midwest upper low rapidly fills. Lingering strong westerly flow is likely over the southern Rockies and High Plains through Wednesday. A weak lee cyclone is expected to form over parts of eastern CO, supporting gusty surface winds to the west across parts of eastern NM. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated to brief locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible over parts of the southern High plains/Rockies as the southeastern CO low develops on Wednesday afternoon. Winds of 15-20 mph will overlap low RH of around 10-15% atop dry fuels. Fire weather concerns are most likely near the terrain to the southwest of the surface low over eastern NM and far southern CO. Here winds and downslope drying are expected to be the strongest with the longest duration for a few hours during the afternoon. ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Flood Warning issued April 15 at 9:55PM EDT until April 19 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
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Flood Warning issued April 15 at 9:55PM EDT until April 17 at 12:30PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
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Flood Warning issued April 15 at 9:20PM EDT until April 19 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SC
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Flood Warning issued April 15 at 9:20PM EDT until April 18 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston SC
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Flood Warning issued April 15 at 8:53PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL
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WW 109 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD VA WV CW 151750Z - 160200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Southern Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Virginia Central and Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Broken bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and move east-southeast through the mid evening. Scattered severe gusts capable of wind damage will be possible with the stronger cores and outflow winds. Large hail may accompany the early cellular storm activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Beckley WV to 30 miles east southeast of Wallops VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...SmithRead more -
MD 0439 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 0439 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...Virginia...Maryland...and Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 151703Z - 151900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase by 3-4pm EDT. Damaging gusts to 60-70 mph and large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible through early evening. DISCUSSION...Gradual destabilization is occurring from west to east early this afternoon across the MCD region. Increasing cumulus development is noted over the past hour across the higher terrain of West Virginia into northern Virginia as temperatures have warmed into the 70s to low 80s. The 12z MPAS-HT high-res guidance appears to have the best handle on morning convection across the region, and in the expected convective evolution through early evening. Based on this guidance, and current observed trends, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase by 19-20z/3-4pm EDT near/south of a residual frontal boundary draped west to east across the region. This development will be aided by continued heating/destabilization, increasing midlevel moisture and a very steep low and midlevel lapse rate environment (midlevel lapse rates around 8 C/km with southward extent across VA). While low-level winds will remain light, a belt of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will foster effective shear magnitudes suitable for organized convection. Initial cellular activity will pose a risk for large hail and strong gusts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong outflow winds will occur with this activity and clustering is likely to occur via outflow interactions. A damaging wind threat will increase with southeastward extent across Virginia toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity where steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg will be focused. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD vicinity by 18-19z. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39387892 39417647 39277553 38927496 38717477 38077471 36797576 36617617 36577708 36797916 36977959 37708109 38248124 38618114 38868058 39157996 39387892Read more -
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Morning observed soundings within the High Plains region showed shallow moisture along with a shallow temperature inversion. This should allow surface temperatures to rapidly rise into the afternoon along with moisture mixing out quite efficiently. Widespread critical fire weather is expected today. Extremely critical conditions appear probable at least on a localized basis. Within the Missouri Valley, morning surface observations already show ongoing elevated to borderline critical conditions, which is ahead of even the drier/windier deterministic model solutions. Given pockets of receptive fuels, particularly with southwestern extent, several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are possible. RH should eventually increase from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts northward with time. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated to scattered large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are evident on D4/Thursday from the Ozark Plateau into central TX. Low probability severe may persist into D5-6, mainly across parts of TX, with severe potential appearing negligible around D7-8. A northern-stream mid/upper trough should shift east from the Northwest into the Upper Midwest on D4. A more piecemeal eastward evolution is progged into the weekend amid multiple embedded impulses. The southern stream is expected to remain relatively weak and quasi-zonal, although there are indications of lower-amplitude impulses migrating through the flow. The best potential for severe appears focused on D4. Both the 00Z NAM/ECMWF hint at elevated convection developing across the central Great Plains late D3 on Thursday morning within a strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection regime south of the trough shifting into the Upper Midwest. Robust diabatic heating is expected in the warm-moist sector over the southern Great Plains, with the largest buoyancy so far this week ahead of the dryline in TX. As surface ridging noses down the High Plains, a lee cyclone will be forced east-southeast into OK as a developing frontal wave. Above-average agreement exists across guidance with surface-based convective development along both the southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone and dryline. Primary uncertainty with southern extent is the degree of deep-layer shear as wind profiles appear weak to modest over most of the larger buoyancy plume. Have delineated a 15 percent area where potential for a few supercells and multicell clusters is evident on Thursday afternoon, with an implied lower severe probability extending farther southwest through much of central TX.
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. ...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South... Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 15 03:02:01 UTC 2024.
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No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 15 03:02:01 UTC 2024.
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 15 03:01:04 UTC 2024.
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Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:46PM EDT until April 19 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston SC
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Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:46PM EDT until April 18 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston SC
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Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:30PM EDT until April 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
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Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:29PM EDT until April 16 at 6:48PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
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Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:23PM EDT until April 15 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
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Flood Warning issued April 14 at 9:22PM EDT by NWS Jacksonville FL
SPC Apr 16, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
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