NorthGeorgiaWX
-
Posts
34,615 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1,501
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
Gallery
Events
Store
Downloads
Posts posted by NorthGeorgiaWX
-
-
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTH GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... A compact but intense bow/MCS may be ongoing Friday morning across parts of south GA into north FL. The location of this bow, its intensity, and potential longevity to the Atlantic Coast remain rather uncertain at this time. Still, a moist and unstable airmass should be present across the Southeast Friday morning, along and south of a cold front. A convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum should accompany the small bow across the central Gulf Coast vicinity. This feature and attendant enhanced mid-level westerly winds should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for continued organization of the bow as it moves quickly eastward Friday morning across the remainder of north FL/south GA, and eventually off the Atlantic Coast. Severe/damaging winds will likely be the main concern with this MCS, although an embedded tornado or two also appears possible. Have included a Slight Risk where damaging winds appear most likely with the morning convection. However, a faster progression than currently forecast may require further adjustments to the corridor of greatest severe threat. In the wake of this morning activity, additional convective development and evolution across the Southeast remains unclear. Robust thunderstorms could regenerate across parts of north FL on the outflow of the morning MCS, with both a hail and wind threat given a favorable environment forecast. Severe probabilities have been expanded southward some across the FL Peninsula to account for this plausible scenario. Other isolated strong to severe convection may develop along or just ahead of the south-southeastward moving cold front Thursday afternoon. This seems more likely to the north of the morning MCS across parts of the Carolinas, and perhaps north/central GA. Occasional damaging wind gusts and hail should be the main threats if this thunderstorms develop in this somewhat separate regime. ...West/South-Central Texas... A cold front should decelerate as it moves southward across TX on Friday. Modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico. At this point, it appears that large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a belt of modestly enhanced westerly mid-level flow persisting. A strong thunderstorm or two may attempt to develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. Regardless, the threat for severe convection across west/south-central TX still appears too uncertain/conditional for low severe probabilities at this time. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough will dig southeastward across the Upper Midwest Friday. Limited low-level moisture and weak instability should be in place across this region. But, strong/gusty winds may still occur with low-topped convection that may develop and spread quickly southeastward as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. The potential for severe winds currently appears too limited to include any probabilities. ..Gleason.. 05/09/2024
Read more -
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/NORTH TX EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Another very active severe weather episode is possible later today, with the main threat expected along a generally west-to-east corridor from parts of north/central TX into the Southeast. Some severe potential will persist across parts of AL/GA during the day, with at least some risk of all severe hazards. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of central/north TX during the afternoon and early evening. One or more fast-moving MCSs may move eastward across parts of the Southeast tonight, potentially producing a swath of damaging wind. A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will cover much of the CONUS on Thursday. An embedded mid/upper-level low will move slowly and perhaps retrograde toward the eastern Great Basin, with moderate to strong westerly midlevel flow extending eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold front will move across parts of the southern Plains and Southeast through the day, with the frontal position potentially influenced by widespread antecedent convection that will likely last into the morning. ...MS/AL/GA/SC during the day... A cluster of strong to potentially severe storms may be ongoing across parts of MS/AL/GA/SC at the start of the forecast period. This convection may expand in coverage through the morning within broad low-level warm advection, and generally spread east-southeastward toward the coast. Downstream of this convection, diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate to potentially strong buoyancy, while favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection. A mixture of supercells and bowing segments will be possible, with an attendant threat of damaging gusts, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Parts of central/north TX during the afternoon... There is some signal for isolated storm development this morning across western portion of the Edwards Plateau, on the western fringe of deeper low-level moisture and strong instability. Any storm that matures in this area could quickly evolve into a supercell with a threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. If any early development persists northeastward, or else does not disrupt the warm sector, then a supercell threat is expected to evolve into parts of central/north TX during the afternoon, both near the dryline/front intersection and also potentially to the cool side of the front. Strong to extreme instability (with MLCAPE across the warm sector potentially in the 3000-4000 J/kg range), favorable deep-layer shear, and elongated/straight hodographs will support a threat of very large to giant hail. Low-level flow/shear will be rather weak, but some tornado threat could also evolve, especially where storm and/or boundary interactions take place. ...Central/north TX eastward across the Southeast during the evening/overnight... A majority of HREF guidance and also some larger-scale guidance (such as the NAM/GFS/ECMWF) depict potential for development of a fast-moving MCS that would move from parts of central/north TX across the Southeast into the overnight hours. The pattern generally favors this scenario, with favorable downstream moisture/instability and moderate to strong westerly flow aloft. If this scenario pans out, then a long swath of damaging winds will be possible from TX across much of the Southeast, including the potential for gusts of greater than 75 mph, and possibly brief line-embedded tornadoes. However, given the inherent uncertainty with late-period MCS development, combined with uncertainty regarding the evolution of diurnal convection into MS/AL/GA, no increase in unconditional wind probabilities has been made with this outlook. The 30% wind area has been expanded southward, based on the latest guidance. ...North Carolina into the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley... Some early convection may persist into parts of NC and the Mid Atlantic, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. Some redevelopment will be possible into parts of IN/OH, where weak to moderate buoyancy may persist in advance of a cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Dean/Wendt.. 05/09/2024
Read more -
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A closed low in the Great Basin will remain nearly stationary on Friday, though upper-level winds will weaken during the day. High pressure and cooler air will continue to be pushed against the central/southern Rockies. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Southwest. However, the spatial extent and duration of these conditions should be less than on Thursday. Only localized fire weather concerns are anticipated. ..Wendt.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more -
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A closed low in the Great Basin will remain nearly stationary on Friday, though upper-level winds will weaken during the day. High pressure and cooler air will continue to be pushed against the central/southern Rockies. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Southwest. However, the spatial extent and duration of these conditions should be less than on Thursday. Only localized fire weather concerns are anticipated. ..Wendt.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more -
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The elongated upper trough will evolve into a closed low over the Great Basin today. Farther east, the primary upper trough will move into parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push south into the Southern Plains and cooler air will push up against the southern Rockies. Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low for most areas. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Southwest. Winds outside of terrain-favored areas will reach 15-20 mph with RH falling to 10-20%. Fuels in Arizona still do not support a large fire threat. Fuels into New Mexico are drier, but the duration of any elevated conditions appears too limited to support highlights. ..Wendt.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more -
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 8 at 11:41PM EDT until May 9 at 12:15AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
-
MD 0719 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 208...210... FOR ARKLATEX VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity Concerning...Tornado Watch 208...210... Valid 090230Z - 090430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 208, 210 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of large/very-large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two could persist beyond 03Z. Watch extensions could be needed for southeast Arkansas into northwest Louisiana. DISCUSSION...Two supercells continue east-southeastward in northeast Texas. They have both shown some oscillations in intensity and organization over the past hour or so. The environment remains strongly buoyant ahead of them with 40-50 kts of effective shear. Large to possibly very large hail still may occur as could isolated severe gusts. The tornado risk is less certain, though a modest increase in low-level helicity is evident downstream on objective mesoanalysis. Based on current projections, these storms will probably effect portions of northwest Louisiana and southeast Arkansas beyond the 03Z time frame when WW 208 and WW 210 are set to expire. Some local extensions in time/area may be needed to account for this possibility. ..Wendt.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32539620 32769660 32879654 33079625 34089490 33479325 32859306 32099447 32429582 32539620Read more -
MD 0720 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0931 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...far western North Carolina...northwestern South Carolina...and northeastern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090231Z - 090400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe/supercell storms moving across southern Appalachians will begin to spread east of WW 211 in the next hour. New WW may be required. DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows strong/severe storms -- including embedded supercells -- moving eastward across eastern Tennessee, northern Alabama, and northwestern Georgia. Hints of upscale growth into banded structures is indicated within the overall area of widespread convection, with likelihood that convection will continue over the next few hours. As such, storms will begin spreading out of WW 211 over the next hour or so. The downstream airmass in lee of the Appalachians is less unstable, particularly from northeastern Tennessee into northern and central North Carolina. Convection moving into northeastern Tennessee has shown a gradual weakening trend, confirming the less-favorable airmass. However, across far southwestern North Carolina and northwestern South Carolina, and into northeastern Georgia, a more favorably unstable airmass exists. This would appear to be the most likely area for continued severe-weather potential in the next 2 to 4 hours. This threat -- which would include locally damaging winds, marginal hail, and possibly a tornado or two -- may require new WW issuance. ..Goss/Hart.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35678317 35308231 34418203 33968236 34148309 34558369 35348396 35678317Read more -
MD 0721 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 212... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...and western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 212... Valid 090334Z - 090500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 212 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for damaging winds and hail, and a couple of tornadoes, continues across the discussion area (within Tornado Watch 212). DISCUSSION...A bowing band of storms is moving out of southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois at this time, while more isolated/rotating cells continue to gradually increase in coverage from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky. With this area on the northern fringe of a moderately unstable airmass, storms will likely maintain intensity over the next couple of hours. Aided by veering low-level flow that increase to 50-plus kt above 4km AGL, shear will support updraft rotation. Resulting, all-hazards severe risk will therefore likely continue through midnight, spreading gradually eastward with time, toward eastern portions of the watch. ..Goss.. 05/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 36329120 36819087 37438989 37928945 37868884 37028704 36548743 36329120Read more -
Special Weather Statement issued May 8 at 11:31PM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
-
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 8 at 11:16PM EDT until May 9 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
-
Tornado Watch issued May 8 at 11:12PM EDT until May 9 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SC
-
Tornado Watch issued May 8 at 11:12PM EDT until May 9 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
-
Tornado Watch issued May 8 at 11:12PM EDT until May 9 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
-
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 8 at 11:11PM EDT until May 9 at 12:15AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
-
-
-
WW 214 TORNADO AL GA NC SC TN 090310Z - 090800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 214 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Alabama Northern Georgia Southwest North Carolina Western South Carolina Southeast Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1110 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms continue from northern Alabama into northern Georgia and southeast Tennessee. These storms will track eastward overnight across the watch area, while new isolated storms develop and move in from the west. Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible with these storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Chattanooga TN to 20 miles south of Asheville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 211...WW 212...WW 213... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...HartRead more -
WW 214 TORNADO AL GA NC SC TN 090310Z - 090800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 214 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Alabama Northern Georgia Southwest North Carolina Western South Carolina Southeast Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1110 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms continue from northern Alabama into northern Georgia and southeast Tennessee. These storms will track eastward overnight across the watch area, while new isolated storms develop and move in from the west. Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible with these storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Chattanooga TN to 20 miles south of Asheville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 211...WW 212...WW 213... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...HartRead more -
Flash Flood Warning issued May 8 at 11:01PM EDT until May 9 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
-
WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW DEQ TO 10 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 SSW FYV TO 5 SSW HRO TO 15 NNW FLP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719 ..WENDT..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-061-071-081-087-089-101-129-131-133-090340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN HOWARD JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER MADISON MARION NEWTON SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER OKC079-135-090340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more -
WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW DEQ TO 10 WNW DEQ TO 25 NW RKR TO 15 SSW FYV TO 5 SSW HRO TO 15 NNW FLP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719 ..WENDT..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SHV...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-061-071-081-087-089-101-129-131-133-090340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN HOWARD JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER MADISON MARION NEWTON SEARCY SEBASTIAN SEVIER OKC079-135-090340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LE FLORE SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more -
WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TYR TO 30 SE DAL TO 15 ESE DAL TO 15 SSW PRX TO 30 NE PRX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719 ..WENDT..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC091-090340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MILLER TXC037-063-067-119-159-183-203-223-231-257-315-343-379-387-397- 423-449-459-467-499-090340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CAMP CASS DELTA FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN MARION MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
Read more -
WW 0210 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE TYR TO 30 SE DAL TO 15 ESE DAL TO 15 SSW PRX TO 30 NE PRX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719 ..WENDT..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 210 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC091-090340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MILLER TXC037-063-067-119-159-183-203-223-231-257-315-343-379-387-397- 423-449-459-467-499-090340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CAMP CASS DELTA FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN MARION MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
Read more
GA - Flash Flood Warning issued May 9 at 2:42AM EDT until May 9 at 8:45AM EDT by NWS Peachtree City GA
in Georgia Weather Alerts RSS Feed
Posted
View the full article